Those of us not completely embroiled in the sports world will hardly find the term “resume building” to have negative connotations. Late in February during college basketball season, however, that’s not the case. The Michigan State Spartans will look to avoid becoming tournament resume builders on the road again, this time against the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Minnesota, sitting at a very average 17-10 (and an uninspiring 5-9 in Big Ten play) needs a gigantic win at home over Big Ten behemoth Michigan State to increase their chances of dancing. With three of their next games against ranked opponents, now will have to be the time for a rally, especially as the Gophers enter Wednsday’s contest on an ugly three game losing skid. Michigan State needs a win to retain their tenuous hold on first place in the Big Ten.
All of these factors combine to set us up for a fantastic mid-week game, but what has to happen for either side to win? Here’s some things to remember:
Michigan State’s Key To Victory: KISS (Keep it simple, stupid!)
If that seems like lazy analysis, I can assure you that it’s not. Right now, the Spartans are one of the hottest teams in the country, never mind the Big Ten. They are winners of five in a row, most of those games in dominating or somewhat embarrassing fashion. They are rebounding the ball intensely, scoring better than expected and playing fantastic team defense. At this point, the only thing that could derail Michigan State is an affinity to complicate matters, such as falling in love with the outside jump shot. That means Michigan State must continue to pound the ball in the paint, get the rock to Draymond Green and let Branden Dawson and Keith Appling take over in stages close to the bucket. It seems other teams have to be on top of their game to keep things close against the Spartans lately. If Michigan State comes out and executes with the same type of intensity and focus that they have for the past three weeks, Minnesota shouldn’t have the will, never mind the athletes, to keep up.
Minnesota’s Key To Victory: Play high off early emotions generated by an excited crowd.
Going on the road in the Big Ten is never easy, and Minnesota’s Williams Arena (nicknamed “The Barn”) can be one of the roughest tests out there. It will be imperative for the Golden Gophers to knock down some open looks (if they have them) early in the game to whip the crowd into a fast frenzy. That could work to panic the Spartans a bit, forcing turnovers, bad offensive possessions and overall confusion. Within this, it will be important for Minnesota’s best player, Ralph Sampson III, to get off to a fantastic start and take play to the Spartan big men down low. Purdue did a nice job in the first half with noise and passion at Mackey Arena, but the Spartans were able to feed off the hostility and throttle the Boilermakers late. Watching that performance should have concerned the Golden Gophers immensely.
The X-Factors: Joe Coleman and Branden Dawson
Coleman’s been a hard player to figure out this season, playing tons of minutes in four straight games without contributing much to the stat sheet, including points. He’s been the antithesis of what CBS analyst Clark Kellogg likes to call a “stat sheet stuffer.” Against Northwestern, Coleman was suddenly red hot, contributing 12 points on 6-7 shooting. With plenty of talented guards on Michigan State capable of putting up big numbers, the Gophers will need all of their guards—including Coleman—to have a good effort. If Coleman is able to contribute anything, the chances of Minnesota winning at home will be much better.
Whether it was due to the vitriol randomly spewed at him by a Purdue crowd still angry he didn’t choose the Boilermakers (think jilted lover syndrome) or simply the passion behind returning to his home state, Dawson looked to have taken the next step to greatness last Sunday. He contributed 15 impassioned points in the win against the Boilermakers, along with this emphatic windmill dunk. When Minnesota and Michigan State first met in January, Dawson quietly scored 16 points. It’s clear that the Golden Gophers will need to come up with an answer for the talented freshman, who looks to be growing up right before our very eyes.
Most Important “State” Stat Of The Game: 10 and 4 (no, not the popular “ten code” which means “understood” in CB radio talk) instead, this 10-4 represents the number of steals the Spartans and Golden Gophers each had in their last meeting. As you can guess, the victorious Spartans held the advantage, stealing the ball 10 times while only tossing it away four. If Minnesota wants to win at home, those numbers are going to have to flip very dramatically. The Gophers must be much more aggressive on defense and force the Spartans into plenty of turnovers. Consequently, Michigan State will have to be sloppy and make a few more mistakes on the road too, seeing as they rank a stout 25th in the nation in offensive efficiency.
Intangibles: Minnesota’s unique home court.
The floor at Williams Arena is raised, meaning the shooting angles and feel for those players not experienced with such a surface is a bit unique. While this shouldn’t trouble much of Michigan State’s team, it will be important to watch how players like Branden Dawson and Brandon Wood are affected. If players new to such an environment have a hard time adjusting during the game, that could make for a bit of an advantage for Minnesota, who needs all the help they can get against the hot Spartans.
Prediction: Michigan State comes in rolling, but will likely need to weather plenty of storms against a frenzied Minnesota crowd hell-bent on pushing their Gophers back onto the bubble discussion. The Spartans are involved in more of a tussle here than against Purdue, but somehow find a way to overcome a tough shooting night behind solid defense and toughness. Michigan State stays alone atop the Big Ten by sneaking out of Williams Arena in a game that will be much closer than many experts expect.
Michigan State 69, Minnesota 65